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Ashlea Financial Planning Cheltenham

Recommendations for Financial Updates

Ireland is showing signs of recovery. Irish bond yields have fallen sharply and the IMF report states that it expects Ireland to meet its budget defecit target for next year.

In June they produced a record trade surplus, the low corporation tax rate has encouraged foreign investment.

Not out of the woods yet but at least moving in the right direction


A British tourist in Spain had a diamond pendant worth £10,000 stolen. The thief swallowed it but it was discovered by x-raying him.

Adam Fleming, a company director's marriage has hit the rocks. His wife reaped revenge by sinking his £90,000 yacht by drilling two holes in it.

£500,000 is the sum required to preserve Roald Dahl's shed where he wrote all his books.


Yesterday the FTSE100 dropped 4.7% its biggest one day fall since March 2009. This followed a 3% fall on Wall Street as the markets reacted to the 'Twist' movements by the Fed to try to manipulate the yield curve on Treasuries. This involved the selling of short dated stock and the purchase of longer dated stock. This accompanied by a gloomy statement on economic prospects sent the Dow Jones into freefall. Other markets followed.

The news from Europe was equally gloomy with stockmarkets in Germany and France falling 5% and 5.3% respectively. Greece is still in a position where default on its debt is likely. The yield on Greek government debt is now above 20%. Many French and European banks hold large quantities of this debt which means there is also anxiety about another banking crisis.

Worries about the Chinese economy and the position in America and Europe sent Asian Markets down around 3% overnight.

Commentators who used to think a break-up of the Euro was unthinkable are now coming around to the idea that this might happen. Philip Stephens in the Financial Times today makes the point that the reason that the single currency is in trouble is because the member countries are unconvinced that European Union is worth saving.

Stephens also makes the point that this is preeminately a political crisis. Taken as a whole the debts of the peripheral countries are a small proportion of the Eurozone's output. The revival of the individual countries Nationalisms are standing in the way of a solution to the crisis.

The decline of the west in terms of economic prowess means that individual european countries acting alone would be seen as irrelevant by the emerging economies of China, India and Turkey. By acting together at least Europe stands a chance of competing on the world stage.

We are still bystanders and must wait for politicians to work together to provide a case for preserving the Eurozone.

 

 

 


Today is the day that Ben Bernake makes his speech to the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers, and economists are divided on whether he will introduce QE3 to stimulate the flagging economy. Other people are asking the question of whether this would actually help the economy. Interest rates are already low, consumers are not in the mood for spending. What is really needed is something to encourage the banking system to start offering credit to companies that might be able to produce growth.

Europe is still causing concerns. Angela Merkel is not keen to support the issuance of Eurobonds which would enable the funding of the debt of Italy and Spain to reduce the pressure on their deficits. George Osborne has expressed his frustration at the indecisiveness of the Eurozone to taking strong measures to prevent economies suffering a double dip recession.

What is clearly needed is strong leadership from the US; Europe and Britain. At the moment all politicians seem to be reluctant to take tough decisions.


It is not the financial crisis which has caused the leaders to return to the UK but the spate of rioting on the streets of Tottenham Enfield and Walthamstow and Hackney. Birmingham also saw riots last night.

These have been sparked by the killing on Thursday last week of Mark Duggan.

The rioting brings to the fore the gang culture that now prevails in these areas. These mean that the safety of those people outside the area of their 'gang' is under threat.

 

 

 


Yesterday the dow showed the worst falls since December 2008 as the market took in the news of the downgrading of the US by Standard and Poors to AA+ from AAA for the first time in its history. What is evident is that the S&P who were ridiculed for getting their fiscal sums wrong, are placing a great emphasis on the political situation. The largest fall on the markets occured after Obama made his speech in which he tried to dismiss the importance of the S&P rating.

Markets around the world also fell dramatically; the FTSE100 was down 178; and Asian markets showed large overnight falls on Monday but the early signs on Tuesday morning were that the worst falls were over.


The long awaited 'non-farm' payroll data from the US came in today with better than expected figures.

The figures at 117,000 were much better than expected. The markets have rallied strongly with the FTSE100 index only down minus 42, having started the day at minus 160.

The news is tempered by the increase in the number of unemployed people that was released on Thursday.


This quotation from Shakespeare acurately describes the markets yesterday. Silvia Berlusconi, currently facing charges of tax evasion, corruption and paying an underage prostitute has avoided talking to parliament for almost a month. He broke his silence on Wednesday, but despite reassurances that Italy's banks could ride out the storm he failed to calm the markets. The FTSE 100 index saw its worst fall since March 2009 crashing through the former support level of 5500. Lloyds TSB's share price finished at half the price that the government paid for it when it merged wiht the HBOS in January 2009. We need decisive action from Europe but yesterday the ECB bought Portuguese and Irish bonds and left the Italians and the Spanish high and dry.

The FTSE 100 started this morning down 160 points at juat over 5200 this morning. This is not due to selling pressure but mark down of prices by Market Makers. It is likely to be an exciting day.


President Obama had his 50th birthday yesterday. After a tumultuous week last week where the politicians were posturing about whether to increase the debt ceiling to allow the USA to continue to pay its debts the agreement on Monday 1st, one day before necessary failed to stem the wall of worry which has attacked the markets. Yesterday saw the worst falls on the US stockmarkets since the Lehmans crisis of 2008.

Following the agreement manufacturing figures were disappointing indicating that the growth on the American ecomomy is still slow. Markets will await anxiously for the 'non farm' payroll figures which are due out before Wall Street opens this afternoon before 2p.m. British summer time.


The seventeen member states met on Thursday in Brussels to formulate a rescue package for Greece with the aim of supporting the Euro and also bringing some calm to the bond markets. The yield on Spanish and Italian bonds have risen sharply this week.

The package provides €109billion of aid to Greece was agreed after late consultations with Mr Sarkozy, who has wanted a banking levy and the last minute intervetion of Mr Trichet from the European Central bank.

The Europena Financial Stabillity Facility (EFSF) has agreed to offer borrowers lower interest rates and longer maturities on debt. It will be able to offer loans to countries facing liquidity pressure and also be able to buy sovereign bonds in emergency circumstances.

From Financial Times Saturday Editions


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Registered No: 5439258
Registered Place: England And Wales
Registered Address: 81 Hatherley Road Cheltenham GL51 6EG

 

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